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Prediction for CME (2021-07-26T16:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-07-26T16:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17393/-1
CME Note: Partial halo to the southwest in SOHO LASCO/C2, to the west in COR2A. Associated with an eruption from AR 12847 (near S30E00), visible in SDO AIA 171/193 beginning 2021-07-26T14:57Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-07-29T11:38Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-07-26 21:58
. Time at C2: 2021-07-26 16:48
. Radial speed: 610.0 km/s
. Half angle: 35 deg
. Eruption location: S03E08

Inferences:
. No flare association was found

Predictions for Earth:
. In-situ shock speed: 589.00 km/s
. Shock arrival time: 2021-07-29 11:38 (i.e. predicted transit time: 66.85 hours)
KP: 4 - 5

Lead Time: 62.30 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2021-07-26T21:20Z

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